Calculator is accessible at the tabs above. The "Tutorial" will help guide you in developing a valuation.
        Biotech Valuation Calculator
for
Alder BioPharmaceuticals, Inc. (ALDR)
       
               
               
               
        On portable devices, best viewed as a "Desktop Site"        
    To proceed further, you must agree to the Terms of Use by checking the box below.    
    TERMS OF USE    
    This Dynamic Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV) Biotech Valuation Calculator allows you to enter your own numbers, assumptions, and projections in order to help provide you with your own personal and customized valuation. The rNPV method of valuation is considered the preferred method by most biotech analysts. THE YELLOW HIGHLIGHTED CELLS WITHIN EACH OF THE TABS CAN BE ADJUSTED TO THE USER'S PREFERENCES. The default data in the yellow highlighted cells within this calculator are only hypothetical placeholders and need to be modified by the user to develop a valuation. The valuation result is a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation over 15 years showing the resulting Target Share Price. The DCF valuation is risk-adjusted by the probability of success percentages set forth in the assumptions for each drug pipeline candidate. Up to 12 reputable third-party probability success models can be selected, or you can customize your own probability model to your liking. Projected sales for each drug pipeline candidate can be customized according to the dynamic variables in the corresponding tabs and provide for a high-degree of flexibility. Financial data from the company's latest Annual Report is used to help calculate the resulting valuation. Since this calculator contains thousands of formulas that dynamically update, you may experience a very slight delayed response during use. This calculator has browser storage enabled, and retains modifications between browsing sessions. Modifications can be reset by selecting the "Reset" button located at the bottom of each tab. ENJOY!    
       
    * Disclosures/Disclaimers: This calculator has been prepared by BioBoyScout and is intended for informational and illustrative purposes only, and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. The numbers, formulas, and calculations expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely the opinion of BioBoyScout. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those disclosed, if any. No part of this calculator may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of BioBoyScout. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. BioBoyScout does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide investing, tax, accounting, financial, actuarial, record keeping, broker/dealer or any related services. You may not rely on any of the statements contained herein. BioBoyScout shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material or any calculations performed therein. You should consult your advisor(s) with respect to these areas. BioBoyScout certifies that any and all views, research, and/or data expressed in this valuation calculator accurately reflect the developed knowledge about any and all of the subject securities featured in this valuation calculator. By using this calculator, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.    
       
          Please direct any questions or comments to: info@bioboyscout.com          
       
Check here to indicate that you have read and agree to the Terms of Use.        
                                 
                 
  Calculator is now accessible at the top of the page. The "Tutorial" will help guide you in developing a valuation.
  TUTORIAL  
Click Here to Open Tutorial in a Separate Browser Window
  While this valuation calculator is developed to be intuitive, easy-to-use, and self-explanatory, this tutorial provides step-by-step instructions on how to use this calculator and how to best take advantage of its features. There are multiple ways in which this calculator can be used:  
1. You can create your own risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation, just like Wall Street analysts.
2. You can replicate other analysts' valuations in order to analyze and/or adjust their numbers to your liking.
3. You can quickly calculate valuations on multiple hypothetical scenarios.
4. You can quickly update a valuation prior to other analysts based on newly released information.
  The valuation calculator can help quickly determine valuations based on occurrences that can have an impact on the share price, such as:  
adding or dropping a drug modifying royalty rates
advancing a drug to next phase modifying corporate spending (R&D, SG&A, PP&E, etc.)
increasing or decreasing time to approval increasing or decreasing outstanding shares
adjusting the discount rate adjusting valuation based on a capital raise
modifying patient populations and/or pricing accounting for a partnership
adding or removing milestone payments etc., etc.
  To develop a valuation, you should have a general working knowledge about the corporation and its drug pipeline.  
  Note that the default data in the yellow highlighted cells within this calculator are only hypothetical placeholders and need to be modified by the user to develop a valuation.  
  STEP 1 - 'Summary' tab  
  The 'Summary' tab includes a basic summary of information, assumptions, calculations, and valuations. It is within this page where the final risk-adjusted discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation is performed to determine the Equity Value of the company and the resulting Target Share Price. All the yellow highlighted cells within the calculator are modifiable by the user to develop the valuation.  
  Steps to Cover Related Links  
  1. Enter the "Current share price" in the space provided.  
  2. Enter the "Number of shares outstanding" in the space provided. The number of shares of common stock outstanding can be found on page 1 of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report.  
  3. Select the Probability of Success model you would like to apply to your valuation. If you are unsure about which model to select, go to the 'Probabilities' tab and review the different models. Informational links for each of the models are provided. Alternatively, you can create your own Custom probability model by entering your own probabilities in the "Custom" row ('Probabilities' tab). The "PhRMA (2003)" model is a believed to be a good conservative and commonly used model.    
  4. Select the applicable "Tax Rate." This can be determined by selecting the corporate tax state that the company uses. The corporate tax state is identified as "address of principal executive offices." This can be found on page 1 of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report.  
  5. Select which drugs you would like to value by marking the appropriate check boxes. This generally includes drugs that are at least in phase 1, but it can also include drugs that are pre-clinical and in development. The drugs you select to value will be displayed as individual tabs at the top of the page and will require additional input to determine each drug's value. This will be covered in 'STEP 3 - Drug pipeline' tutorial below.  
  STEP 2 - 'Financials' tab  
  The 'Financials' tab includes financial information from the last four annual reports, including the latest net cash value from the most recently filed report. Only the necessary financial information that is needed to develop a valuation is included. The financial information is labeled accordingly and should be fairly self explanatory. The yellow highlighted cells can be modified by the user to make projected financial assumptions regarding various corporate financial operations. More detailed yearly manual adjustments can also be made to select fields in the Income Statement section and are identified as yellow highlighted cells.  
  STEP 3 - Drug pipeline  
  The Drug pipeline tabs are the drugs selected for valuation in the 'Summary' page. Each drug has its own page for valuation and requires sales related assumptions that need to be filled in.  
  There are two different valuation models that can be used to value a drug: a "Simple" model and a "Detailed" model. Each model allows for valuations across three different regions: the United States (U.S.), Europe (EU), and Rest of the World (ROW). Not all regions need to be valued; it is typical for analysts to only value the U.S. and EU, while reserving ROW for when more accurate information regarding this region can be obtained, and when the drug nears commercialization.  
  There is a high degree of flexibility to develop the most accurate valuation through both models, including yearly increase in population, percentage of patients getting diagnosed and treated, market penetration rates, treatment costs, yearly percentage change of treatments costs, partnership impact, royalty rates, cannibalization (decline in sales), accounting for milestone payments, etc.  
  If you select that the drug is partnered, this will assume that the partner will bear all costs with regards to the Cost of Goods Sold (COGS), and is therefore excluded from calculating the risk-adjusted revenue.  
  The more you play around with the drug models and all the various assumptions, the more comfortable you will become in understanding how to create a good drug valuation.  
  The more accurate the assumptions are, the more accurate the valuation. It is therefore important to have the most accurate data and assumptions possible. Much of this information is readily available on the Internet, but it requires research and knowledge about the drug and the condition/disease that is being treated.  
  Tips and tricks to find relevant information  
  The company (and any relevant competitors) may provide drug valuation information on its website and/or within some of its presentations. This includes treatable patient populations, yearly growth rates, conditions treated, annual costs, cost burdens, etc. It may also be possible to find comparable sales information from other drugs that have already been allowed and treat similar conditions with similar patient population sizes.  
  Other analyst reports may provide valuable insights. Sometimes detailed data is included in an analyst report, and other times only final valuations of each drug are provided. If only a final drug valuation is provided, it should be possible to reverse-engineer the numbers in such a way so as to end up with the same drug valuation as the analyst. The result can provide valuable insight across numerous areas, such as: 1) how will the valuation change as the drug progresses through the clinic; 2) what happens to the valuation based on a change in any of the other assumption metrics; or 3) is the analyst's valuation valid and what would a more accurate valuation look like. Such insights can help identify hidden value and explain if price targets are accurate, too high, or too low.  
  Search terms that can be used when researching information to develop drug valuation assumptions  
Epidemiology Population Annual cost
Prevalence Sales Annual health care costs
Incidence Revenue Annual average costs
Affects Drug cost Cost burden
Diagnosed Drug price Economic burden
  You can also contact the company and speak with Investor Relations to get as much information on the company's drugs as possible. Often times there are foundations or organizations regarding the conditions/diseases that the drug in intended to treat, and that could be another area to research in order find relevant information.  
  Simple Model  
  The Simple model is a quicker way of developing a drug valuation. The main focused is on the "# of patients treated". This is the total number of patients that are assumed to be treated through then end of the 15 year valuation period (e.g. through 2033), wherein each treatment is multiplied by the treatment cost to determine revenue. The number of patients treated on a yearly basis is automatically calculated and distributed in the correct years based on the assumptions entered. The Simple model is just as accurate as the Detailed model as long as you have a good idea as to the total number of patients that would be treated throughout the 15 year valuation period. A more detailed breakdown of the numbers is shown in the charts on the lower half of each drug page. The more you play around with this model, the more comfortable you will become in understanding how it works.  
  Detailed Model  
  The Detailed model allows you to enter data to determine the yearly treated patient population size. This model is more typical of what analysts use when there is epidemiological and prevalence data available. This model can also be used in reverse-engineering other analysts' numbers. The number of patients treated on a yearly basis is automatically calculated and distributed in the correct years based on the assumptions entered. A more detailed breakdown is shown in the charts on the lower half of the page. The more you play around with this model, the more comfortable you will become in understanding how it works.  
  STEP 4 - 'DR' (Discount Rate) tab  
  The 'DR' tab includes a proprietary Discount Rate calculator, along with information on how to determine the Discount Rate for biotech companies. A survey by Avance of 242 respondents in the biotech/pharma industry regarding Discount Rates is the main basis of the Discount Rate calculator. The yellow highlighted cells within the Discount Rate calculator are modifiable by the user to develop a suggested Discount Rate.  
  The "Company Development Stage" is determined by the latest phase level from all of the valued drugs. That Development Stage determines a range of Discount Rates taken from the survey. You can select the "Type of Discount Rate" to apply: this ranges from low to high, wherein medium is the default. The more knowledgeable you become with understanding discount rates, the easier it will be to determine the Type of Discount Rate to apply, as the riskier the company, the higher the Discount Rate.  
  Additional Factors  
  The Proprietary Discount Rate calculator includes additional factors to take into consideration that are believed to have an impact on the Discount Rate. This includes: the percentage of institutional ownership, the number of drug partnerships with large pharma companies, and the number of years projected revenue is expected to surpass certain thresholds. The "Percentage of Institutional Ownership" can be determined from public websites, such as NASDAQ or Fintel. The "# of Drug Partnerships" with large pharma companies should be public information accessible through the corporate website. The number of years that projected revenue surpasses certain thresholds is automatically calculated based on drug pipeline data that was entered.  
  If you would like to use a different Discount Rate than the Adjusted Suggested Discount Rate determined by the calculator, you can override the Discount Rate on the 'Summary' page by selecting the override checkbox and entering your own Discount Rate.  
  STEP 5 - 'Summary' tab  
  Now that most of the valuation assumptions have been entered, the remaining assumptions in the "Value of Shares" section within the 'Summary' page need to be completed.  
  1. The "Terminal Growth Rate assumption" can be adjusted to your liking. 2.00% is a typical rate used for sustainable biotech franchises.  
  2. The calculated Adjusted Suggested Discount Rate from the 'DR' tab is used as the Discount Rate. You can override this rate by selecting the override checkbox and entering your own Discount Rate.  
  3. The "Cash adjustment" field can be used to add or subtract value from "Net Cash" (the following line item). This is helpful when the next quarter numbers are released and the valuation calculator has not yet been updated to reflect the current net cash on hand. When adjusting "Net Cash", the proper quarter should be selected in the "Net Cash Value adjusted after" field, as this has an impact on the discount period in the DCF valuation.  
  STEP 6 - Double-check all tabs  
  Lastly, be sure to double-check all of your inputs in each tab located at the top of the page.  
  Congratulations on creating your own risk-adjusted DCF valuation, just like Wall Street Analysts.  
  Useful links  
  Projection Attributes  
                     
                           
 
Can be located on the first page of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report. Identified as the number of shares of common stock outstanding.
                         
 
Probability Models can be accessed and reviewed at the 'Probabilities' tab. Drug pipeline Prob. of Success Model
Probability Models can be accessed and reviewed at the 'Probabilities' tab.
                         
 
State for determining taxes can be located on the first page of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report. Identified as the address of "principal executive offices".
State for determining taxes can be located on the first page of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report. Identified as the address of "principal executive offices".
                         
  Current Market Cap ($M)                          
  Equity Value (Target Market Cap) ($M)                          
  Target Share Price                          
Select Which Drugs to Value
 
                     
 
                     
 
                     
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  GAAP EBIT  
  Less:  Taxes  
  GAAP Tax Rate (%)  
  Depreciation & Amortization  
  Stock based compensation  
  Change in Working Capital  
  Capital Expenditures  
  Operating free cash flow  
  Discount Period 0  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
  Value of Shares             SUMMARY            
 
2% is a typical rate used for sustainable franchises. Terminal Growth Rate assumption
2% is a typical rate used for sustainable franchises.
     
  Terminal Value ($M)      
 
Enter your own rate or see Discount Rate Calculator in the "DR" tab to calculate a discount rate after all other assumptions have been entered.
Enter your own rate or see Discount Rate Calculator in the "DR" tab to calculate a discount rate after all other assumptions have been entered.
     
 
To enter your own Discount Rate, check override checkbox and enter your own Discount Rate in the adjacent cell. Override Suggested Disc. Rate?
To enter your own Discount Rate, check override checkbox and enter your own Discount Rate in this cell.
     
  rNPV of FCF ($M)      
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)      
  Total rNPV ($M)      
  TV as % of total      
 
Add or subtract to Net Cash value. Cash adjustment ($M)
Add or subtract to Net Cash value.
     
       
  Net Cash Value adjusted after:
     
  Equity Value ($M)      
  $ / Share   Copyright © 2018-2019, BioBoyScout. All Rights Reserved.    
                                       
Submit your completed valuation to develop a crowd-sourced soft-guided valuation.
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Assumptions  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
  Cost of Goods Sold (COGS)  
  Taxes, R&D, SG&A  
  Cash flow  
  Discount Period  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
                                   
                               
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption                            
  Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Discount Rate                            
  rNPV of FCF ($M)                            
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)                            
  Total rNPV ($M)                            
  $ / Share                            
                             
                             
                             
  Corporate Operations and Financial Projection Assumptions                                    
 
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): Percentage of Product Sales change year-over-year. COGS: % of Product Sales change YoY
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): Percentage of Product Sales change year-over-year.
                                   
 
Research & Development (R&D): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). R&D: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Research & Development (R&D): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). SG&A: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Stock compensation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Stock compensation: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Stock compensation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Depreciation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Depreciation: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Depreciation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Other income: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Other income: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Other income: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Assets & liabilities: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Assets & liabilities: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Assets & liabilities: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                         
 
Property, Plant, & Equipment (PP&E): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). PP&E:  % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Property, Plant, & Equipment (PP&E): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
  Figures in millions, unless otherwise stated                                    
TOTAL REVENUE  
INCOME STATEMENT
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Total Licensed Revenue
Total Product Sales
COGS Revenue
Total Revenue
    Collab & licensing revenue
    Milestone revenue
Total Revenues (unadjusted)
Total Revenues - Royalty
    % growth
INCOME STATEMENT (Relevant Numbers)
Revenue
Total Revenue
Manual Adjustment to COGS
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
% Adjustment Override to R&D
Research & Development (R&D)
    Stock-based Compensation
        % Adjustment Override to SBC
        Stock-based comp. (SBC)
$14 $22 $25
        Manual Adjustment to SG&A
Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A)
Non Recurring
Others
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Income or Loss
Income from Continuing Operations
Manual Adjust. to Other Inc.
Total Other Income/Expenses Net
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)
Interest Expense
Income Before Tax
Income Tax Expense
Minority interest
Net Income From Continuing Ops
Non-recurring Events
Discontinued Operations
Extraordinary Items
Effect Of Accounting Changes
Other Items
Net Income
Net Income
Preferred Stock and Other Adjustments
Net Income Applicable To Common Shares
Net Gain(Loss)/Share
SHRHLDRS - BASIC & DILUTED:
Wtd avg shares outstanding 40.6 48.4 58.3 68.1
% Manual Adjust. to Wtd. avg shares outstanding
BALANCE SHEET (Relevant Numbers)
Current Assets
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Short Term Investments
Total Current Assets
Property, Plant, and Equipment (PP&E)
Total Assets
Total Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
CASH FLOW (Relevant Numbers)
Net Income
Operating Activities
Depreciation
Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities
Investing Activities
Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Financing Activities
Change In Case and Cash Equivalents
Total Cash Flows
   
  PhRMA (2003) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DiMasi (2010) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 21.1% 55.5% 91.0% 100.0%  
  Keegan (2008) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 25.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  Stewart (2002) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 67.0% 80.0% 100.0%  
  Grabowski (1991) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 31.0% 64.0% 64.0% 100.0%  
  Kaitin (1995) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 62.0% 75.0% 100.0%  
  BIO (2016) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 17.4% 50.6% 88.4% 100.0%  
  Windeye Partners (2018) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 26.8% 59.5% 93.0% 100.0%  
  Struck (1994) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 25.0% 33.0% 66.0% 100.0% 100.0%  
  Myers and Howe (1997) 0.0% 12.9% 21.5% 23.9% 31.9% 63.7% 75.0% 100.0%  
  Lehman Brothers (1997) 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 10.0% 30.0% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DillonCapital (2015) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 18.7% 35.9% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  0.0% 3.2% 4.0% 17.9% 28.5% 61.2% 85.5% 100.0%  
  Custom  
                     
               
  Proprietary Discount Rate Calculator        
  Avance Study              
 
Early-Stage: Preclinical - PreIND
Mid-Stage: Phase 1 - Phase 2
Late-Stage: Phase 3 - Approval
Company Development Stage
Early-Stage: Preclinical - PreIND
Mid-Stage: Phase 1 - Phase 2
Late-Stage: Phase 3 - Approval
  After calculating a new Discount Rate, you must then enter it in the 'Summary' tab if you would like to apply this rate to the valuation.    
  Type of Discount Rate: 1 (Low) - 9 (High)
     
  Suggested Discount Rate              
  Additional Factors  
         
 
Percentage of Institutional Ownership can be found on various websites, including nasdaq.com.
Percentage of Institutional Ownership can be found on various websites, including nasdaq.com.
             
  Institutional Own. Impact (-2% to 2% sliding scale)              
  # Drug Partnerships (Companies > $5B/yr in Rev.)              
  Partnership Impact (-0.4% per partner)              
  # Years Revenue > $500M (0.05%/yr decrease)              
  # Years Projected Sales > $1B (0.075%/yr decrease)              
  # Years Projected Sales > $10B (0.1%/yr decrease)              
  Projected Sales Impact              
  Discount Rate Change based on Additional Factors              
  Adjusted Suggested Discount Rate   rNPV Discount Rate Table (Avance Study)    
  Discount rates in drug development, Biostrat &'>Discount rates in drug development, Biostrat & Avance, Villiger & Nielsen (2013)   DR Type Early-Stage Mid-Stage Late-Stage    
  NPV vs. rNPV, Avance (Feb. 2011)   1 (Low) 12.00% 10.00% 9.00%    
  Discount Rates for Biotech Companies, Avance (Jan. 2008)   2 14.00% 11.50% 10.38%    
          3 16.00% 13.00% 11.75%    
  Early-Stage:  Preclinical - PreIND   4 18.00% 14.50% 13.13%    
  Mid-Stage:  Phase 1 - Phase 2   5 (Medium) 20.00% 16.00% 14.50%    
  Late-Stage:  Phase 3 - Approval   6 22.00% 17.50% 15.88%    
          7 24.00% 19.00% 17.25%    
      8 26.00% 20.50% 18.63%    
        9 (High) 28.00% 22.00% 20.00%