Dynamic rNPV Biotech
Valuation Calculator
for
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 		     
           
           
           
           
  BEFORE GOING FURTHER, PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING:  
  This Dynamic Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV) Biotech Valuation Calculator allows you to enter your own numbers, assumptions, and projections in order to help provide you with your own personal and customized valuation. The rNPV method of valuation is considered the preferred method by most biotech analysts. THE YELLOW HIGHLIGHTED CELLS WITHIN EACH OF THE TABS CAN BE ADJUSTED TO THE USER'S PREFERENCES. The valuation result is a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation over 15 years showing the resulting Target Share Price. The DCF valuation is risk-adjusted by the probability of success percentages set forth in the assumptions for each drug pipeline candidate. Up to 12 reputable third-party probability success models can be selected, or you can customize your own probability model to your liking. Projected sales for each drug pipeline candidate can be customized according to the dynamic variables in the corresponding tabs and provide for a high-degree of flexibility. ENJOY!  
   
   
   
   
   
   
  * Disclosures/Disclaimers: This calculator has been prepared by Robert Toczycki, the author, and is intended for informational and illustrative purposes only, and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. The numbers, formulas, and calculations expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely the opinion of the author. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those disclosed, if any. No part of this calculator may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the author. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. The author does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, financial, actuarial, record keeping, broker/dealer or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. The author shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisor(s) with respect to these areas. The author certifies that any and all views, research, and/or data expressed in this valuation calculator accurately reflect his knowledge about any and all of the subject securities featured in this valuation calculator, and the author was not, is not, nor will not be directly or indirectly compensated related to building this calculator, nor to the specific calculations and/or valuations determined by this calculator. The author does not hold a position in Alnylam Pharmaceuticals. By using this calculator, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
  Copyright © 2018-2019, Robert Toczycki. All Rights Reserved.    
  Silver Version 1.7  
 
  Projection Attributes ALNY  
                     
  Current share price                          
  Number of shares outstanding                          
  Drug pipeline Prob. of Success Model
                         
  Tax Rate                          
  Current Market Cap ($M)                          
  Equity Value (Target Market Cap) ($M)                          
  Target Share Price                          
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2019  
  GAAP EBIT  
  Less:  Taxes  
  GAAP Tax Rate (%)  
  Depreciation & Amortization  
  Stock based compensation  
  Change in Working Capital  
  Capital Expenditures  
  Regeneron payments/milestones  
  Operating free cash flow  
  Discount Period 0  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
  VALUE OF Alnylam SHARES     SUMMARY    
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption      
  Terminal Value ($M)      
       
  rNPV of FCF ($M)      
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)      
  Total rNPV ($M)      
  TV as % of total      
  Cash adjustment ($M)      
  Net Cash ($M)      
  Equity Value ($M)      
  $ / Share      
             
  Analyst Target Price      
  Barclays  
   
  Bernstein                            
  BioBoyScout                            
  BMO                            
  Cantor Fitz                            
  Chardan                            
  Cowen                            
  Evercore                            
  B Riley FBR                            
  Goldman Sachs                            
  Guggenheim                            
  Jefferies                            
  JMP                            
  Leerink                            
  Leerink Swann                            
  Morgan Stanley                            
  Needham                            
  Nomura                            
  Piper Jaffray                            
  Stifel Nicolaus                            
  UBS                            
  Your Target                            
  Average                            
  Assumptions Onpattro  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total Revenue  
  Total Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue w/Milestones  
  Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated                            
                                   
  Assumptions Fitusiran  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions Inclisiran  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions Cemdisiran  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions Givosiran  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
         
  # of years until approval          
  % Initial market penetration          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions Lumasiran  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions Vutrisiran  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions ALN-AAT02  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. FALSE
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob. FALSE                          
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization? FALSE FALSE FALSE                          
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions ALN-HBV02  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions ALN-AGT  
                     
  Drug Pipeline Stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. FALSE
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob. FALSE                          
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU other                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization? FALSE FALSE FALSE                          
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
2019  
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
2019
Number of patients
Number diagnosed
Number treated
Market penetration
Treatable patients
Cannibalization rate
Patients treated
Treatment cost
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
Royalty (revenue) ($M)
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Corporate Operations and Financial Projection Assumptions                                      
  COGS: % of Product Sales change YoY                                      
  R&D: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                                      
  SG&A: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                                      
  Stock compensation: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                            
  Other income: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                                      
  Operating assets & liabilities: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)   Financial data from Alnylam's 2011-2017 Annual Reports has been used to generate this data. Projection Assumptions can be modified to forecast corporate operational data from 2018-2032.                
  PP&E:  % change YoY (after 6 & 3 yr avg)                  
TOTAL REVENUE  
INCOME STATEMENT
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Product Sales
    Collab & licensing revenue
    Milestone revenue
Total Revenues (unadjusted)
Total Revenues - Royalty
TOTAL REVENUES (risk adj.+milestones)
    % growth
GAAP Calculations
OPERATING EXPENSES
    Cost of goods sold (COGS)
    Research and development
    Cons. & prof. services
    Compensation and related
    Facilities related
    In-process R&D
    Restructuring
    Other
    Stock-based comp (R&D)
    Stock-based comp (SG&A)
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
OPERATING LOSS
    Total Other Income plus tax
NET GAIN - EARN. BEF TAXES (EBT)
    Interest income (expense), net
EARN. BEFORE INT & TAXES (EBIT)
    Taxes and other expenses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
        Tax rate
NET GAIN TO ALNY(GAAP)
FULLY DILUTED EPS (GAAP)
    % change
    Wtd avg shares outstanding
Dividend per common share $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
FINANCIAL POSITION SUMMARY
    Cash and cash eqvlnts
    Short and long-term inv.
    Total assets
    Long-term obligations
NonGAAP Calculations
OPERATING EXPENSES
    Cost of goods sold (COGS)
    Research and development
    SG&A less stock-based comp.
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
OPERATING INCOME
    Operating margins
EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES (EBT)
    Interest income (expense), net
EARN. BEFORE INT. & TAXES (EBIT)
    Taxes and other expenses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
        Tax rate
NET INCOME (LOSS)
FULLY DILUTED EPS (NonGAAP)
    % change
BALANCE SHEET
ASSETS
    Current Assets
        Cash and cash equivalents
        Short-term investments $71 $193 $527 $848 $424 $1,045 $663
        All other Current Assets $3 $8 $144 $76 $54 $74
    Total Current Assets
        Long-term investments $103 $105 $280 $252 $325 $14 $0
        All other Non-Current Assets $59 $62 $53 $29 $266 $216
    Total Non-Current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
LIABILITIES
    Total Current Liabilities $48 $54 $95 $62 $132 $144 $179
    Total Long-Term Liabilities $105 $105 $96 $48 $60 $211 $84
TOTAL LIABILITIES
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
    Preferred stock
    Common stock $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
    Additional paid-in capital $625 $846 $1,843 $2,506 $2,610 $3,948 $4
    Acc other comp income $16 $20 $49 $4 ($33) ($34) ($33)
    Accumulated deficit ($507)
    Total stockholders' equity
    Non-controlling interest
    Add. paid-in-capital adjustment
TOTAL STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
TOTAL LIAB & STKHLDS' EQUITY
REVENUE
REVENUE
    Total product sales $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $13
    Additional revenue $67 $47 $51 $41 $47 $90 $62
    Milestone revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TOTAL REVENUE
OPERATING EXPENSES
    Manual Adjustment to COGS
    Cost of goods sold (COGS) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $2
        % of Total Product Sales
   % Adjustment Override to R&D
    Research & Dev. (R&D)
            % change
avg-3
        % Adjustment Override to SBC
        Stock-based comp. (SBC) $8 $14 $18 $27 $43 $52 $81
            % change
avg-3
    Total R&D $87 $113 $190 $276 $382 $391 $505
        % change
avg-3
    SG&A:
        % Adjustment Override to SBC
        Stock comp (SG&A) $4 $6 $15 $19 $33 $41 $77
            % change
avg-3
        Manual Adjustment to SG&A
        Consulting & prof svcs $29 $10 $15 $21 $25 $69 $137
        Compensation and related $6 $7 $10 $13 $21 $60 $107
        Facilities related $2 $1 $2 $4 $6 $11 $26
        In-process R&D
$221
        Restructuring $66
        Other $2 $3 $3 $4 $5 $18 $35
        % change
avg-3
    Total SG&A
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
OPERATING GAIN (LOSS)
OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE)
    Interest income, net $1 $1 $3 $6 $8 $12 $29
        % change
5%
    Manual Adjust. to Other Inc.
    Equity joint venture (Regulus)* ($5)
    Gain stock by Regulus* $16
    Other income (expense)* $0 ($0) $2 $0 $6 ($3)
        % change
avg-3
TOTAL OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE)
INCOME CONT OPS BEFORE TAXES
    Provision for inc taxes* $11 $3 $40
($1)
NET GAIN TO ALNY
NET GAIN PER SHARE TO ALNY
SHAREHOLDERS - BASIC & DILUTED:
    Wtd avg shares outstanding 50.29 61.55 74.28 83.99 85.60 90.55 100.59
OTHER COMP INC, NET OF TAX:
    Loss mktbl sec, net of tax $16 $4 $31 ($44) ($31) ($3) $1
    Reclassification adjustment
($2)
($7) $2 ($4)
COMPREHENSIVE LOSS
*Other Miscellaneous Income
CASH FLOW
CASH FROM OP. ACTIVITIES
    Net loss
    Adjstmts reconcile op activities:
        Depreciation and Amortization $9 $10 $12 $19 $15 $13 $6
            % change
avg-3
        401(k) company stock match $0 $0 $1 $1 $2 $2 $3
        Equity loss of JV (Regulus) $5
        Realized gain mktbl sec. ($0)
        Gain on joint venture ($16)
        Benefit intraperiod tax ($11) ($3) ($40)
        In-process R&D
$221
        Other
        Stock-based compensation
        Realized loss on mktbl sec.
    Total Adjstmts reconcile op act.
    Projections in op assets & liab
        Manual Adjust. to Op. Assets
        Proceeds landlord tenant 1.78 $0 $2 $0 $2
$25
        Billed and unbilled CR 1.364 ($4) ($36) $32 ($15) ($11) $15
        Prepaid exp & other assets 1.78 ($1) ($6) ($7) ($5) ($21) ($35)
        Accounts payable ($2) $2 $9 $2 $10 ($5) $15
        Accrued expenses & other ($4) $2 $9 $6 $11 $32
        Deferred revenue ($9) ($6) ($8) $2 $15 $2 ($13)
        % change
avg-3
   Total Projections op assets & liab
NET CASH BY OP. ACTIVITIES
CASH FROM INV. ACTIVITIES:
    % Adjust. Override to PP&E
    Property, Plant and Equipment ($8) ($4) ($9) ($13) ($65) ($104) ($127)
        % change
avg-6
    Purchases of restr. invstmts ($0)
($1) ($150)
($15)
    Purchases of mktble sec. ($277) ($364) ($978) ($1,034) ($759) ($903) ($1,104)
    Sales and maturities of MS $289 $238 $463 $727 $1,116 $597 $1,519
    Payment for asset acq.
($25)
    Sale of restricted invstmnts
$120
NET CASH BY INV. ACTIVITIES
CASH FROM FIN. ACTIVITIES:
    Proceeds - stock options $7 $29 $29 $31 $14 $84 $69
    Proceeds Sanofi Genzyme CS
$723 $89 $14 $21 $0
    Proceeds - issuance LT debt
$150
($0)
    Repayment of LT debt
($120)
    Payments repurchase of CS ($0) ($1) ($16) ($0) ($1) ($0) ($3)
    Proceeds - common stock $87 $174
$496
$1,140
NET CASH BY FIN. ACTIVITIES
NET INCREASE IN CASH
CASH AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD $70
CASH AT END OF PERIOD
                                                 
   
  PhRMA (2003) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DiMasi (2010) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 21.1% 55.5% 91.0% 100.0%  
  Keegan (2008) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 25.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  Stewart (2002) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 67.0% 80.0% 100.0%  
  Grabowski (1991) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 31.0% 64.0% 64.0% 100.0%  
  Kaitin (1995) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 62.0% 75.0% 100.0%  
  BIO (2016) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 17.4% 50.6% 88.4% 100.0%  
  Windeye Partners (2018) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 26.8% 59.5% 93.0% 100.0%  
  Struck (1994) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 25.0% 33.0% 66.0% 100.0% 100.0%  
  Myers and Howe (1997) 0.0% 12.9% 21.5% 23.9% 31.9% 63.7% 75.0% 100.0%  
  Lehman Brothers (1997) 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 10.0% 30.0% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DillonCapital (2015) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 18.7% 35.9% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  Average of 12 Sources 0.0% 3.2% 4.0% 17.9% 28.5% 61.2% 85.5% 100.0%  
  Custom  
               
                     
  Proprietary Discount Rate Calculator          
  Avance Study                
  Company Development Stage
  After calculating a new Discount Rate, you must then enter it in the 'Summary' tab if you would like to apply this rate to the valuation.      
  Type of Discount Rate: 1 (Low) - 9 (High)
       
  Suggested Discount Rate                
  Additional Factors  
           
  Percentage of Institutional Ownership                
  Institutional Own. Impact (-2% to 2% sliding scale)                
  # Partnerships with Companies > $5B/yr in Rev.                
  Partnership Impact (-0.4% per partner)                
  # Years Projected Sales > $500M (0.05%/yr decrease)                
  # Years Projected Sales > $1B (0.075%/yr decrease)                
  # Years Projected Sales > $10B (0.1%/yr decrease)                
  Projected Sales Impact                
  Discount Rate Change based on Additional Factors                
  Adjusted Suggested Discount Rate   rNPV Discount Rate Table (Avance Study)      
  Discount rates in drug development, Biostrat & Avance, Villiger & Nielsen (2013)   DR Type Early-Stage Mid-Stage Late-Stage      
  NPV vs. rNPV, Avance (Feb. 2011)   1 (Low) 12.00% 10.00% 9.00%      
  Discount Rates for Biotech Companies, Avance (Jan. 2008)   2 14.00% 11.50% 10.38%      
          3 16.00% 13.00% 11.75%      
  Early-Stage:  Preclinical - PreIND   4 18.00% 14.50% 13.13%      
  Mid-Stage:  Phase 1 - Phase 2   5 (Medium) 20.00% 16.00% 14.50%      
  Late-Stage:  Phase 3 - Approval   6 22.00% 17.50% 15.88%      
          7 24.00% 19.00% 17.25%      
          8 26.00% 20.50% 18.63%