Biotech Valuation Calculator
for
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 		       
               
               
               
        On portable devices, best viewed as a "Desktop Site"        
    To proceed further, you hereby agree to the Terms of Use set forth below    
    TERMS OF USE    
    This Dynamic Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV) Biotech Valuation Calculator allows you to enter your own numbers, assumptions, and projections in order to help provide you with your own personal and customized valuation. The rNPV method of valuation is considered the preferred method by most biotech analysts. THE YELLOW HIGHLIGHTED CELLS WITHIN EACH OF THE TABS CAN BE ADJUSTED TO THE USER'S PREFERENCES. The default data in the yellow highlighted cells within this calculator are only hypothetical placeholders and need to be modified by the user to develop a valuation. The valuation result is a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation over 15 years showing the resulting Target Share Price. The DCF valuation is risk-adjusted by the probability of success percentages set forth in the assumptions for each drug pipeline candidate. Up to 12 reputable third-party probability success models can be selected, or you can customize your own probability model to your liking. Projected sales for each drug pipeline candidate can be customized according to the dynamic variables in the corresponding tabs and provide for a high-degree of flexibility. Financial data from the company's latest Annual Report is used to help calculate the resulting valuation. Since this calculator contains thousands of formulas that dynamically update, you may experience a very slight delayed response during use. This calculator has browser storage enabled, and retains modifications between browsing sessions. Modifications can be reset by selecting the "Reset" button located at the bottom of each tab. ENJOY!    
       
    * Disclosures/Disclaimers: This calculator has been prepared by BioBoyScout and is intended for informational and illustrative purposes only, and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. The numbers, formulas, and calculations expressed herein are subject to change without notice and are solely the opinion of BioBoyScout. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those disclosed, if any. No part of this calculator may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of BioBoyScout. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. BioBoyScout does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide investing, tax, accounting, financial, actuarial, record keeping, broker/dealer or any related services. You may not rely on any of the statements contained herein. BioBoyScout shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material or any calculations performed therein. You should consult your advisor(s) with respect to these areas. BioBoyScout certifies that any and all views, research, and/or data expressed in this valuation calculator accurately reflect the developed knowledge about any and all of the subject securities featured in this valuation calculator. BioBoyScout holds a position in Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals. By using this calculator, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.    
       
          Please direct any questions or comments to: robert@bioboyscout.com          
Copyright © 2014-2023, BioBoyScout. All Rights Reserved.
  Projection Attributes ARWR  
                     
  Current Share Price                          
 
Can be located on the first page of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report. Identified as the number of shares of common stock outstanding. Number of shares outstanding
                         
 
Probability Models can be accessed and reviewed at the 'Probabilities' tab. Drug Probability of Success Model
Probability Models can be accessed and reviewed at the 'Probabilities' tab.
                         
 
State for determining taxes can be located on the first page of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report. Identified as the address of "principal executive offices". Tax Rate (Combined Fed & State)
State for determining taxes can be located on the first page of the latest 10-K or 10-Q Report. Identified as the address of "principal executive offices".
                         
  Current Market Cap ($M)                          
  Total Value (Target Market Cap) ($M)                          
  Target Share Price                          
  RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M) 2023  
  GAAP EBIT  
  Less:  Taxes  
  GAAP Tax Rate (%)  
  Depreciation & Amortization  
  Stock based compensation  
  Change in Working Capital  
  Capital Expenditures  
  Operating free cash flow  
  Discount Period 0  
  Discount Factor  
  Present Value of Cash Flows  
  Value of Shares             SUMMARY            
 
2% is a typical rate used for sustainable franchises. Terminal Growth Rate assumption
2% is a typical rate used for sustainable franchises.
     
  Terminal Value ($M)      
 
Enter your own rate or see Discount Rate Calculator in the "DR" tab to calculate a discount rate after all other assumptions have been entered.
Enter your own rate or see Discount Rate Calculator in the "DR" tab to calculate a discount rate after all other assumptions have been entered.
     
 
To enter your own Discount Rate, check override checkbox and enter your own Discount Rate in the adjacent cell. Override Suggested Disc. Rate?
To enter your own Discount Rate, check override checkbox and enter your own Discount Rate in this cell.
     
  rNPV of FCF ($M)      
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)      
  Total rNPV ($M)      
  TV as % of total      
 
Add or subtract to Net Cash value. Cash adjustment ($M)
Add or subtract to Net Cash value.
     
       
  Net Cash Value adjusted after:
     
  Total Value ($M)      
  $ / Share      
                 
                 
               
               
               
Copyright © 2014-2023, BioBoyScout. All Rights Reserved.
  Assumptions Fazirsiran  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions JNJ-3989  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions Olpasiran  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-ANG3  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions HoFH HeFH                            
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-APOC3  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions FCS sHTG MD                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions GSK4532990  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-PNPLA3  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-C3  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions C3G PNH IgAN                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-RAGE  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions CF COPD Asthma                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-MUC5AC  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions CF/NCF/PCD COPD Asthma                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-MMP7  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions HZN-457  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-DUX4  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-COV  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Assumptions ARO-Viral2  
                     
  Simple or Detailed Drug Model?  
                           
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
 
                           
 
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab. Probability of Success
Probability of Success Model can be modified in the 'Summary' tab.
                         
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
  Total # of treatments                          
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                          
  % Patients diagnosed                          
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
                           
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  Patient yearly growth percentage                          
  % initial patient penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                  
  % Treatment cost increase per year                  
  Is drug partnered? (partner bears costs)
                 
  Royalty Rate (% collectable, 100% if wholly owned)                          
  Account for Cannibalization (Decline)?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cann.                          
   
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
   
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Decline rate  
  Patients treated  
  Manual adjustment (+/-) to patients treated  
  Total Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Milestones / Custom Adj ($M)  
  Total License revenue ($M)  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  COGS Revenue risk-adjusted ($M)  
  Total Revenue ($M)  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total License Revenue  
  Total Product Sales  
  Total COGS Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue  
 
  Corporate Operations and Financial Projection Assumptions                                    
 
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): Percentage of Product Sales change year-over-year. COGS: % of Product Sales change YoY
Cost of Goods Sold (COGS): Percentage of Product Sales change year-over-year.
                                   
 
Research & Development (R&D): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). R&D: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Research & Development (R&D): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). SG&A: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Stock compensation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Stock compensation: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Stock compensation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Depreciation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Depreciation: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Depreciation: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Other income: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Other income: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Other income: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
 
Assets & liabilities: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). Assets & liabilities: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Assets & liabilities: Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                         
 
Property, Plant, & Equipment (PP&E): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average). PP&E:  % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)
Property, Plant, & Equipment (PP&E): Percentage change year-over-year (after 3 year average).
                                   
  Figures in millions, unless otherwise stated                                    
TOTAL REVENUE
 
INCOME STATEMENT
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Total Licensed Revenue
Total Product Sales
COGS Revenue
Total Revenue
    Collab & licensing revenue
    Milestone revenue
Total Revenues (unadjusted)
Total Revenues - Royalty
    % growth
INCOME STATEMENT (Relevant Numbers)
Revenue
Total Revenue
Manual Adjustment to COGS
Cost of Revenue (COGS)
Gross Profit
Operating Expenses
% Adjustment Override to R&D
Research & Development (R&D)
    Stock-based Compensation
        % Adjustment Override to SBC
        Stock-based comp. (SBC)
        Manual Adjustment to SG&A
Selling, General and Administrative (SG&A)
Total Operating Expenses
Operating Income or Loss
Income from Continuing Operations
Manual Adjust. to Other Inc.
Total Other Income/Expenses Net
Earnings Before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)
Interest Expense
Income Before Tax
Income Tax Expense
Net Income From Continuing Ops
Net Income
Net Income
Net Income Applicable To Common Shares
Net Gain(Loss)/Share
SHRHLDRS - BASIC & DILUTED:
Wtd avg shares outstanding
% Manual Adjust. to Wtd. avg shares outstanding
BALANCE SHEET (Relevant Numbers)
Current Assets
Cash & Cash Equivalents
Short Term Investments
Total Current Assets
Property, Plant, and Equipment (PP&E)
Total Assets
Total Current Liabilities
Total Liabilities
CASH FLOW (Relevant Numbers)
Net Income
Operating Activities
Depreciation
Total Cash Flow From Operating Activities
Investing Activities
Total Cash Flows From Investing Activities
Financing Activities
Change In Case and Cash Equivalents
Total Cash Flows
   
  PhRMA (2003) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DiMasi (2010) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 21.1% 55.5% 91.0% 100.0%  
  Keegan (2008) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 25.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  Stewart (2002) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 67.0% 80.0% 100.0%  
  Grabowski (1991) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 31.0% 64.0% 64.0% 100.0%  
  Kaitin (1995) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 62.0% 75.0% 100.0%  
  BIO (2016) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 17.4% 50.6% 88.4% 100.0%  
  Windeye Partners (2018) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 26.8% 59.5% 93.0% 100.0%  
  Struck (1994) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 25.0% 33.0% 66.0% 100.0% 100.0%  
  Myers and Howe (1997) 0.0% 12.9% 21.5% 23.9% 31.9% 63.7% 75.0% 100.0%  
  Lehman Brothers (1997) 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 10.0% 30.0% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DillonCapital (2015) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 18.7% 35.9% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  0.0% 3.2% 4.0% 17.9% 28.5% 61.2% 85.5% 100.0%  
  Custom  
                     
               
  Proprietary Discount Rate Calculator        
  Avance Study              
 
Early-Stage: Preclinical - PreIND
Mid-Stage: Phase 1 - Phase 2
Late-Stage: Phase 3 - Approval Company Development Stage
Early-Stage: Preclinical - PreIND
Mid-Stage: Phase 1 - Phase 2
Late-Stage: Phase 3 - Approval
  After calculating a new Discount Rate, you must then enter it in the 'Summary' tab if you would like to apply this rate to the valuation.    
  Type of Discount Rate: 1 (Low) - 9 (High)
     
  Suggested Discount Rate              
  Additional Factors  
         
 
Percentage of Institutional Ownership can be found on various websites, including nasdaq.com. Percentage of Institutional Ownership
Percentage of Institutional Ownership can be found on various websites, including nasdaq.com.
             
  Institutional Own. Impact (-2% to 2% sliding scale)              
  # Drug Partnerships (Companies > $5B/yr in Rev.)              
  Partnership Impact (-0.4% per partner)              
  # Years Revenue > $500M (0.05%/yr decrease)              
  # Years Projected Sales > $1B (0.075%/yr decrease)              
  # Years Projected Sales > $10B (0.1%/yr decrease)              
  Projected Sales Impact              
  Discount Rate Change based on Additional Factors              
  Adjusted Suggested Discount Rate   rNPV Discount Rate Table (Avance Study)    
  Discount rates in drug development, Biostrat &'>Discount rates in drug development, Biostrat & Avance, Villiger & Nielsen (2013)   DR Type Early-Stage Mid-Stage Late-Stage    
  NPV vs. rNPV, Avance (Feb. 2011)   1 (Low) 12.00% 10.00% 9.00%    
  Discount Rates for Biotech Companies, Avance (Jan. 2008)   2 14.00% 11.50% 10.38%    
          3 16.00% 13.00% 11.75%    
  Early-Stage:  Preclinical - PreIND   4 18.00% 14.50% 13.13%    
  Mid-Stage:  Phase 1 - Phase 2   5 (Medium) 20.00% 16.00% 14.50%    
  Late-Stage:  Phase 3 - Approval   6 22.00% 17.50% 15.88%    
          7 24.00% 19.00% 17.25%    
      8 26.00% 20.50% 18.63%    
        9 (High) 28.00% 22.00% 20.00%