Dynamic rNPV Biotech
Valuation Calculator
for
Dicerna Pharmaceuticals, Inc. 		     
           
           
           
           
  BEFORE GOING FURTHER, PLEASE READ THE FOLLOWING:  
  This Dynamic Risk-Adjusted Net Present Value (rNPV) Biotech Valuation Calculator allows you to enter your own numbers, assumptions, and projections in order to help provide you with your own personal and customized valuation. The rNPV method of valuation is considered the preferred method by most biotech analysts. THE YELLOW HIGHLIGHTED CELLS WITHIN EACH OF THE TABS CAN BE ADJUSTED TO THE USER'S PREFERENCES. The valuation result is a discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation over 15 years showing the resulting Target Share Price. The DCF valuation is risk-adjusted by the probability of success percentages set forth in the assumptions for each drug pipeline candidate. Up to 12 reputable third-party probability success models can be selected, or you can customize your own probability model to your liking. Projected sales for each drug pipeline candidate can be customized according to the dynamic variables in the corresponding tabs and provide for a high-degree of flexibility. ENJOY!  
   
   
   
   
   
   
 
  * Disclosures/Disclaimers: This calculator has been prepared by Robert Toczycki, the author, and is intended for informational and illustrative purposes only, and does not purport to show actual results. It is not, and should not be regarded as investment advice or as a recommendation regarding any particular security or course of action. The numbers, formulas, and calculations expressed herein are subject to change without notice, and are the sole opinion of the author. In the event any of the assumptions used herein do not prove to be true, results are likely to vary substantially. All investments entail risks. There is no guarantee that investment strategies will achieve the desired results. No representation is being made that any account, product, or strategy will or is likely to achieve profits, losses, or results similar to those disclosed, if any. No part of this calculator may be reproduced in any manner, in whole or in part, without the prior written permission of the author. This information is provided with the understanding that with respect to the material provided herein, that you will make your own independent decision with respect to any course of action in connection herewith and as to whether such course of action is appropriate or proper based on your own judgment, and that you are capable of understanding and assessing the merits of a course of action. The author does not purport to and does not, in any fashion, provide tax, accounting, financial, actuarial, record keeping, broker/dealer or any related services. You may not rely on the statements contained herein. The author shall not have any liability for any damages of any kind whatsoever relating to this material. You should consult your advisor(s) with respect to these areas. The author certifies that any and all views, research, and/or data expressed in this valuation calculator accurately reflect his knowledge about any and all of the subject securities featured in this valuation calculator, and the author was not, is not, nor will not be directly or indirectly compensated related to building this calculator, nor to the specific calculations and/or valuations determined by this calculator. The author does not hold a position in Dicerna Pharmaceuticals. By using this calculator, you acknowledge, understand and accept the foregoing.  
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
  Copyright © 2018-2019, Robert Toczycki. All Rights Reserved.    
  Silver Version 1.7    
 
  Projection Attributes DRNA  
                     
  Current share price                          
  Number of shares outstanding                          
  Drug Pipeline Probability of Success Model
                         
  Tax Rate                          
  Current market cap ($M)                          
  Equity Value (Target Market Cap) ($M)                          
  Target Share Price                          
RISK-ADJUSTED DCF ANALYSIS ($M)  
GAAP EBIT
Less:  Taxes
GAAP Tax Rate (%)
Depreciation & Amortization
Stock based compensation
Change in Working Capital
Capital Expenditures
Operating free cash flow
Discount Period
Discount Factor
Present Value of Cash Flows
  Value of Dicerna Shares           SUMMARY            
  Terminal Growth Rate assumption      
  Terminal Value ($M)      
       
  rNPV of FCF ($M)      
  rNPV of Terminal Value ($M)      
  Total rNPV ($M)      
  TV as % of total      
  Cash adjustment ($M)      
  Net Cash ($M)      
  Equity Value ($M)      
  $ / Share      
             
  Analyst Target Price      
  B. Riley   Copyright © 2018-2019, Robert Toczycki. All Rights Reserved.              
  BioBoyScout  
                       
  Chardan                            
  Citigroup                            
  Cowen                            
  Evercore                            
  HC Wainwright                            
  Leerink Swann                            
  Stifel Nicolaus                            
  SunTrust                            
  Your Target                            
  Average                            
  Assumptions DCR-PHXC  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  Total Milestones  
  Total Revenue  
  Total Revenue risk-adjusted  
  Total Revenue w/Milestones  
  Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones  
  Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated                            
                                   
  Assumptions DCR-HBVS  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
       
  # of years until approval   Estimated 850,000 - 2.2M persons with chronic HBV in the US. [(850,000 + 2,200,000) / 2 = 1,525,000]      
  % Initial market penetration   Approximately 15M people in the WHO European Region are chronically infected with HBV.      
  % Maximum market penetration   Similar to estimated patient population used and relied upon by Cantor Fitzgerald, see pages 29-30.      
  # of years to get max penetration   HCV costs for 12 week curative therapy range from $75k - $94k.      
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-AAT  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-Large  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-LIV1  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-CM1  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year.
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization?
                         
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-CM2  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. FALSE
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization? FALSE FALSE FALSE                          
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-CM3  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. FALSE
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization? FALSE FALSE FALSE                          
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-COMP1  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. FALSE
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization? FALSE FALSE FALSE                          
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Assumptions DCR-COMP2  
                     
  Drug pipeline stage
                         
 
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. Is this a curative treatment?
If curative, patient population decreases by number of patients treated the prior year. FALSE
                         
  Drug Probability of Success Model                          
  Probability of Success                          
  Override Prob. of Success? / % Prob.
                         
                           
  Region Assumptions U.S. EU ROW                          
  Total patient population (in thousands)                          
  % Patient population increase per year                
  % Patients diagnosed                
  % Patients getting any treatment                          
 
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0% % Treated yearly increase post approval
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
If curative, value is automatically calculated at 0.0%
                         
  # of years until approval                          
  % Initial market penetration                          
  % Maximum market penetration                          
  # of years to get max penetration                          
  Initial treatment cost (in thousands $)                          
  % Treatment cost increase per year                          
  Royalty Rate (% collectable)                          
  Account for Cannibalization? FALSE FALSE FALSE                          
      # of years until cannibalization                          
      % Initial cannibalization                          
      % Maximum cannibalization                          
      # of years to get max cannib.                          
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
  2019  
  Number of patients  
  Number diagnosed  
  Number treated  
  Market penetration  
  Treatable patients  
  Cannibalization rate  
  Patients treated  
  Treatment cost  
  Custom Adjustments ($M) - subject to risk-adjustment  
  Total product sales ($M)  
  Royalty (revenue) ($M)  
  Milestones ($M) - no risk-adjustment  
  Risk-Adjusted Revenue ($M)  
Total Milestones
Total Revenue
Total Revenue risk-adjusted
Total Revenue w/Milestones
Risk-Adjusted w/Milestones
Figures in thousands, unless otherwise stated
  Corporate Operations and Financial Projection Assumptions                                      
  COGS: % of Product Sales change YoY                                      
  R&D: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                                      
  SG&A: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                                      
  Stock compensation: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                            
  Other income: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)                                      
  Operating assets & liabilities: % change YoY (after 3 yr avg)   Financial data from Dicerna's 2011-2017 Annual Reports has been used to generate this data. Projection Assumptions can be modified to forecast corporate operational data from 2018-2032.                
  PP&E:  % change YoY (after 6 & 3 yr avg)                  
TOTAL REVENUE  
INCOME STATEMENT
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total Product Sales
    Collaboration & licensing rev.
    Milestone revenue
Total Revenues (unadjusted)
Total Revenues - Royalty
TOTAL REVENUES
    % growth
GAAP Calculations
OPERATING EXPENSES
    Cost of goods sold (COGS)
    Research & development
    Acquired in-process R&D
    Stock-based compensation
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
OPERATING LOSS
    Total Other Income
GAIN FROM CONTINUING OPS
NET GAIN (LOSS)
    Net loss attributable to NCI
EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES (EBT)
    Interest income, net
EARNS BEFORE INT&TAX (EBIT)
    Taxes and other expenses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
        Tax rate
NET GAIN TO Dicerna (GAAP)
FULLY DILUTED EPS (GAAP)
    % change
    Wtd avg shares outstanding
Cash dividend per common share $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
FINANCIAL POSITION SUMMARY
    Cash and cash equivalents
    Short & long-term invstmts
$0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
    Total assets
    Long-term obligations
NonGAAP Calculations
OPERATING EXPENSES
    Cost of goods sold (COGS)
    Research and development
    SG&A less stock comp.
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
OPERATING INCOME
    Operating margins
EARNINGS BEFORE TAXES (EBT)
    Interest income, net
EARNS BEFORE INT&TAX (EBIT)
    Taxes & other expenses $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
        Tax rate
NET INCOME (LOSS)
FULLY DILUTED EPS (NonGAAP)
    % change
BALANCE SHEET
ASSETS
    Current Assets
        Cash & Equivalents $4
        Short-term investments
$25 $25 $45 $248
        All other Current Assets
$2 $2
    Total Current Assets
    Non-Current Assets
        Long-term investments
        All other Non-Current Assets
$3 $3 $2
    Total Non-Current Assets
TOTAL ASSETS
LIABILITIES
    Total Current Liabilities $0 $0 $0 $10 $10 $17 $94
    Total Long-Term Liabilities $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $3 $114
TOTAL LIABILITIES
STOCKHOLDERS' EQUITY
    Preferred stock
    Common stock
$0 $0 $0 $0
    Add. paid-in capital
$297 $297 $417 $605
    Accumulated deficit ($135) ($135)
    Total stockholders' equity
    Non-controlling interest
    Adjustment
TOTAL STCKHLDERS' EQUITY
TOTAL LIAB & STKHDRS' EQ.
REVENUE
REVENUE
    Total product sales $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
    Additional revenue $7
$1 $6
    Grant revenue
$0 $0 $0
        % Change
avg-3
    Milestone revenue $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
TOTAL REVENUE
OPERATING EXPENSES
    Manual Adjustment to COGS
    Cost of goods sold (COGS) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
        % of Total Prod Sales
   % Adjustment Override to R&D
    R & D $12 $12 $29 $44 $42 $36 $46
        % change
avg-3
        as % of sales
    SG&A:
        % Adjustment Override to SBC
        Stock-based comp. (SBC) $0 $0 $8 $10 $9
            % change
avg-3
        Manual Adjustment to SG&A
        G & A expenses $5 $6 $15 $11 $9
        % change
avg-3
        as % of Total Prod Sales
    Total SG&A
TOTAL OPERATING EXPENSES
OPERATING GAIN (LOSS)
OTHER INCOME (EXPENSE)
    Interest income, net $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $1
    Manual Adjust. to Other Inc.
    Preferred stock warrant liab $0 $0 ($3)
    Loss extngshmnt of debt
($0) ($0)
    Interest expense ($1) ($1) ($0)
        % change
avg-3
TOTAL OTHER INCOME
INCOME F/CONT OPS BEF TAX
    Prov for income taxes*
INCOME F/CONT OPS
NET LOSS
    Less: Accretion & div $4 $2 $0
NET GAIN TO Dicerna
NET GAIN PER SHARE
SHREHLDRS - BASIC & DIL:
    Wtd avg shares out 0.03 0.03 16.07 20.32 20.72 21.92 55.62
OTHER COMP INC, NET TAX:
    Other
COMPREHENSIVE LOSS
*Other Misc Income
CASH FLOW
CASH FROM OP ACTS
    Net loss
    Adj to reconcile op acts:
        Stock-based comp.
        Dep & Amortization $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1 $1
            % change
avg-3
    Amor on investments
$0 $0 ($0) ($1)
    Loss prop & eqpmnt
$0 $0
    Deferred revenue ($1)
    Loss on ext of debt
$0 $0
    Increase of pref warrant ($0) ($0) $3
    Proj in op assets & liabs:
        Manual Adjust. to Op. Assets
        Withholding tax
($2) $2
        Deferred revenue
$9 $174
        Prepaid expenses $0 $0 ($1) ($0) ($0) ($1) $1
        Accounts payable ($0) $0 ($0) $1 $2 $1 ($1)
        Accrued expenses $0 $1 $3 $2 ($1) ($0) $4
        Research & receivables ($5) $5
($100)
        Deferred rent ($0) ($0) ($0)
            % change
avg-3
    Net Proj in op assts & liab
NET CASH BY OP ACTS
CASH FROM INV ACTS:
    % Adjust. Override to PP&E
    Property, Plant and Equipment ($0) ($0) ($2) ($1) ($0) ($0) ($0)
        % change
avg-3
    Change restr cash eq
$0
$0 $0
    Maturities inv.
$10 $70 $49 $70 $81
    Purchases inv.
($83) ($36) ($35) ($90) ($283)
    Changes in assets
($1)
NET CASH BY INV ACTS
CASH FROM FIN ACTS:
    Pref stock
$57
$70 $60
    Red pref stock costs
($0)
($1)
    Common stock costs
($0) ($1)
    Proceeds f/stock op exercises
$0 $1 $0 $2
    Net proceeds from IPO
$94
    Repurchase res stock
($0)
    Paymnts deferred costs
($1)
    Proceeds bridge loan
$3
    Payments LT debt fees ($0)
    Repayments LT debt fees ($3) ($4) ($5)
$10 $7 $18
    Settle restricted stock
($0) ($0) ($0) ($0)
    Issuance of common stock $0 $0 $1 $45
$43 $108
NET CASH BY FIN ACTS
NET INCREASE IN CASH
CASH AT BEGINNING OF PERIOD $22
CASH AT END OF PERIOD
                                                 
   
  PhRMA (2003) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 30.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DiMasi (2010) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.3% 21.1% 55.5% 91.0% 100.0%  
  Keegan (2008) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 25.0% 60.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  Stewart (2002) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 67.0% 80.0% 100.0%  
  Grabowski (1991) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 23.0% 31.0% 64.0% 64.0% 100.0%  
  Kaitin (1995) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 30.0% 62.0% 75.0% 100.0%  
  BIO (2016) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.5% 17.4% 50.6% 88.4% 100.0%  
  Windeye Partners (2018) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 26.8% 59.5% 93.0% 100.0%  
  Struck (1994) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 25.0% 33.0% 66.0% 100.0% 100.0%  
  Myers and Howe (1997) 0.0% 12.9% 21.5% 23.9% 31.9% 63.7% 75.0% 100.0%  
  Lehman Brothers (1997) 0.0% 4.0% 4.0% 10.0% 30.0% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  DillonCapital (2015) 0.0% 11.0% 11.0% 18.7% 35.9% 63.0% 90.0% 100.0%  
  0.0% 3.2% 4.0% 17.9% 28.5% 61.2% 85.5% 100.0%  
  Custom  
               
                     
  Proprietary Discount Rate Calculator            
  Avance Study                  
  Company Development Stage
  After calculating a new Discount Rate, you must then enter it in the 'Summary' tab if you would like to apply this rate to the valuation.        
  Type of Discount Rate: 1 (Low) - 9 (High)
         
  Suggested Discount Rate                  
  Additional Factors  
             
  Percentage of Institutional Ownership                  
  Institutional Own. Impact (-2% to 2% sliding scale)                  
  # Partnerships with Companies > $5B/yr in Rev.                  
  Partnership Impact (-0.4% per partner)                  
  # Years Revenue > $500M (0.05%/yr decrease)                  
  # Years Projected Sales > $1B (0.075%/yr decrease)                  
  # Years Projected Sales > $10B (0.1%/yr decrease)                  
  Projected Sales Impact                  
  Discount Rate Change based on Additional Factors                  
  Adjusted Suggested Discount Rate   rNPV Discount Rate Table (Avance Study)        
  Discount rates in drug development, Biostrat & Avance, Villiger & Nielsen (2013)   DR Type Early-Stage Mid-Stage Late-Stage        
  NPV vs. rNPV, Avance (Feb. 2011)   1 (Low) 12.00% 10.00% 9.00%        
  Discount Rates for Biotech Companies, Avance (Jan. 2008)   2 14.00% 11.50% 10.38%        
          3 16.00% 13.00% 11.75%        
  Early-Stage:  Preclinical - PreIND   4 18.00% 14.50% 13.13%        
  Mid-Stage:  Phase 1 - Phase 2   5 (Medium) 20.00% 16.00% 14.50%        
  Late-Stage:  Phase 3 - Approval   6 22.00% 17.50% 15.88%        
          7 24.00% 19.00% 17.25%        
          8 26.00% 20.50% 18.63%        
          9 (High) 28.00% 22.00% 20.00%